Authors: Jag Pratap Singh Yadav
Abstract: This thesis builds an interdisciplinary paradigm of how global warming needs to be considered as a crisis for the very existence of humankind and not just as a problem related to environmental studies and policies. A crucial limitation of the research is found between empirical climatology and normative ethics, and both are inadequate to analyze the issues associated with the risk of climate change. To fill in this gap, the thesis employs mathematical philosophy, applying the instruments of Bayesian epistemology, decision, game, and moral philosophies. Epistemically, what is shown is that while climate uncertainty may feature non-linearity, feedback mechanisms, and tipping points, it should not act as an excuse for not taking action. Rather, when viewed using the tools of Bayesian logic, fat tail risks, and Pascal’s wager approach, uncertainty acts as a strong rationale for preemptive action to be taken. From a strategic point of view, the research paper considers climate change as a game of asymmetric players with multiple agents and multiple generations. The analysis demonstrates that the traditional models of collective action cannot capture the differences in the degree of responsibility, vulnerability, and institutional capability among the parties. In applying the concept of game theory to the long-term decision-making process, the paper reveals the asymmetry between the two generations – present and future – from the ethical perspective, which states that any choice made by one generation will irrevocably alter the opportunity set for the other generation. Moreover, the paper examines flaws in traditional economic approaches to climate change valuation, such as the discounting of future well-being using positive pure time preference. It is shown that such an approach undermines the value of future generations and is inherently biased towards procrastination. On the contrary, the combination of almost zero interest rates and the priority-based welfare principle can provide a more logically consistent approach to environmental management, maintaining temporal impartiality and giving priority to disadvantaged groups in the current and future generations. The main conclusion of this research is that sustainability in terms of environmental protection must be considered as a basic axiom of rational and ethical choice when making decisions in the context of existential threats. Taking into account the uncertainty factor, catastrophic risks, dependency and justice, the paper provides a new definition of environmental sustainability, which is an important prerequisite for ensuring the survival of humanity. The conclusions made have practical implications related to the need for effective global climate.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19834826
