Authors: Eric Sifuna Siunduh, Zachary Mwangi, Dr. Anselemo Peters Ikoha
Abstract: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to African nations, necessitating sophisticated analytical approaches to understand and predict its multifaceted impacts. This study evaluates the effectiveness of mechanistic data analysis methods in machine learning applications for assessing climate change effects across Africa. Through a comprehensive analysis of temperature, precipitation, and socioeconomic data from 2020-2024, the study compared traditional statistical approaches with mechanistic machine learning models including physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), causal inference frameworks, and hybrid mechanistic-statistical models. The methodology integrated satellite data, ground-based observations, and socioeconomic indicators from 54 African countries, employing cross-validation techniques and mechanistic validation approaches. Results demonstrate that mechanistic methods significantly outperform traditional approaches in prediction accuracy (RMSE improved by 23-31%) and interpretability. Physics-informed models showed superior performance in temperature prediction (R² = 0.89) while causal inference frameworks excelled in understanding precipitation-agriculture relationships. The study reveals critical insights into drought patterns, agricultural vulnerability, and urban heat island effects across different African climatic zones. Key findings indicate that mechanistic approaches provide more robust predictions for policy-relevant scenarios, particularly in data-sparse regions common across Africa. However, computational complexity and data requirements present implementation challenges. The study recommends the integration of mechanistic methods with traditional approaches for comprehensive climate impact assessment, emphasizing the need for capacity building and infrastructure development to support widespread adoption of these advanced analytical techniques in African climate research
DOI: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15869058
